Wordstat figures analysed: we break down how serious a threat padel is to tennis

I analysed the figures from Wordstat and we break down how serious a threat padel is to tennis

Playing tennis as well, I often hear from people that padel players are taking courts away from tennis players. And in general padel gets a lot of backlash from tennis players (I am definitely talking about amateurs; I have not discussed this with professional tennis players).

I became interested in looking at the frequency of internet searches for the word padel and comparing it with the word tennis, and, as expected, the figures differ very greatly. In the screenshot for this post I showed the difference.

My assessment:

1. As a notable alternative to tennis already now / in 2026.

At the level of audience interest, padel can already compete for attention, especially in large cities, among an affluent audience, clubs, coaches, court hire and sporting leisure.

2. As a serious competitive category - 2027.

If the pace is maintained at least partially, padel could reach 30-40% of monthly demand for tennis within the next 6-12 months. This is already a level at which businesses in sports infrastructure, equipment and events cannot ignore it.

3. Fully catching up with tennis is not expected before 2028-2030, and it is not guaranteed.

To become equal to tennis in search frequency, padel needs to grow roughly fourfold from its current monthly level. With aggressive growth this is possible in 2-3 years, but more often such trends slow down after explosive growth.

Main conclusion: padel is unlikely to quickly “replace” tennis, but already in 2026-2027 it could become strong competition for it in premium urban sporting leisure. Especially not in terms of mass participation, but in terms of growth rate, novelty and audience interest.